Trump recession fears are mounting as central banks in the UK and US weigh the impact of rising tariffs on inflation and economic stability.
This week, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will decide on interest rates amid growing uncertainty. With Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies threatening higher import costs, analysts are concerned that economic confidence could plummet, leading to a sharp downturn.
Could a ‘Trump Recession’ Trigger Rate Cuts?
In the US, consumer spending is the backbone of economic growth. However, data from the Conference Board’s confidence index showed the biggest monthly drop in nearly four years last month. Analysts warn that if tariffs drive up prices further, already cautious consumers may cut back even more.
Nigel Green, an analyst at investment firm deVere, warns that a “dangerous mix of inflationary pressures alongside an economic slowdown puts the Fed in a precarious position.” He believes the Federal Reserve must act swiftly, stating, “Rate cuts must come sooner rather than later to prevent deeper damage.”
The Fed’s decision will come on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England’s announcement on Thursday. Both institutions now face the same dilemma: should they cut rates further or hold steady until the impact of tariffs becomes clearer?
UK Interest Rates: Hold or Cut?
The Bank of England had initially predicted that inflation would be under control by 2025, with interest rates expected to drop below 4%. However, recent concerns over tariffs and persistent inflation have changed the outlook. The current UK interest rate stands at 4.5%, slightly above the Fed’s target range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will remain cautious. “The MPC is facing a difficult trade-off between rising inflation and slowing employment growth,” he explained.
Recent figures showing a 0.1% economic contraction in January further complicate the decision. Most economists now expect the Bank to keep rates on hold this week, with a possible cut in May. A further reduction to 4% is anticipated by the end of the year.
Wall Street’s Reaction and US Market Impact
The situation in the US may be more volatile. A major stock market downturn could hit retail sales harder than usual, given that wealthier households have driven much of the consumer spending growth over the past decade.
A report from the Federal Reserve last year found that since 2018, high-income households have increased spending at more than twice the rate of lower-income groups, primarily due to stock market gains. If equity markets crash, consumer confidence could erode rapidly, intensifying fears of a full-scale Trump recession.
Albert Edwards of Société Générale warns, “If the equity market now plunges, we might find that it disproportionately hits retail sales more than usual.”
Garry White, an analyst at Charles Stanley, believes markets now expect further Fed rate cuts, even if inflation remains elevated. However, uncertainty over the timing and impact of Trump’s tariffs means the Fed may hold steady for now.
The Road Ahead for Interest Rates
With inflation still above 2% in both the UK and US, and labour market challenges growing, both central banks are treading carefully. While markets anticipate rate cuts later this year, the short-term outlook remains uncertain.
For now, the Fed and the Bank of England are caught between rising inflation, slowing economic growth, and potential financial instability—all of which could define the months ahead.
