Traders watch a certain number with more fear than curiosity. It doesn’t track a commodity, doesn’t represent a company, and doesn’t give a damn about earnings season. It just gauges fear, or more accurately, the market’s projection of the potential volatility of the next thirty days. When the VIX surged above 65 on a Monday morning in August 2024, trading floors weren’t just crowded. They were shaken.
The movement was startling in the way that only abrupt events can be. The VIX was sitting quietly at 17 a week prior to that morning. It had risen to 23 by Friday, which was already uncomfortable. The fear gauge almost quadrupled before the majority of retail investors had finished their coffee after the weekend, when global equities opened sharply lower.
| Key Information: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | Details |
|---|---|
| Full Name | Cboe Volatility Index |
| Commonly Known As | “Fear Gauge” / “Fear Index” |
| Created By | Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) |
| Year Introduced | 1993 |
| What It Measures | Expected stock market volatility over the next 30 days |
| Based On | Options pricing for the S&P 500 index |
| All-Time High | 85.47 — recorded March 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic) |
| Previous Record High | 80.86 — during the 2008 global financial crisis |
| Low Volatility Range | VIX between 0–12 (calm markets) |
| Normal Range | VIX between 13–19 |
| Elevated Concern Level | VIX above 20 |
| Extreme Stress Level | VIX above 50 |
| August 2024 Intraday Peak | Briefly above 65 — highest since March 2020 |
| April 2025 Peak | Briefly above 60, driven by global tariff fears |
| March 2026 Reading | Intraday high of 28.15 during U.S.-Iran conflict |
Senior wealth advisor Jim Carroll of Ballast Rock Private Wealth put it plainly: traders were chasing put options they were unable to obtain, pushing prices into areas that appeared to be nearly illogical from the outside. The index had dropped to about 38 by the afternoon, but it was still historically high and the highest closing level since the worst weeks of the pandemic.
Both the VIX and its traders have a long memory. When the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic in March 2020, it reached its highest point of 85.47. At that time, no one had a trustworthy model for what would happen next, including central bankers, economists, and equity desks. Prior to that, in the fall of 2008, when Lehman Brothers was failing and the financial system was acting contrary to what textbooks advised, it was 80.86. Those were two truly existential moments. The VIX does not differentiate between causes, but August 2024 felt different, more like a violent technical squeeze than a fundamental rupture. It only detects intensity.
The construction of this specific instrument is what makes it unique. It is not a survey, a poll, or a sentiment index derived from headlines. Because it is based on real options pricing on the S&P 500, those who move it are expressing their anxiety with real money. Elevated concern is usually indicated by a VIX above 20. Something significant is taking place after 30. The instrument tends to overestimate eventual volatility by four or five percentage points, meaning even the fear itself runs a little hot. Above 50, markets are in true crisis mode.
Another spike occurred in April 2025, this time momentarily surpassing 60 as the uncertainty surrounding global tariffs created a situation where no one was sure how to price anything. It’s possible that investors were genuinely perplexed rather than in a panic—a subtle but crucial distinction. The VIX then rose once more in March 2026, reaching an intraday high slightly above 28 as American and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran and oil markets shook. Although it’s not a historic figure, it serves as a reminder to viewers that the period of peace in between crises is always fleeting.
It seems as though markets have become nearly accustomed to these spikes, handling each one as a data point rather than a warning, processing them more quickly, and recovering more quickly. It’s still unclear if that resilience is a sign of wisdom or complacency. Every time, the VIX eventually cools. Traders move on as it retreats and returns to its typical range, which is between 13 and 19.
However, every spike leaves something behind: a reminder that, beneath the orderly surface of equity markets, there is a constant negotiation about how risky the future might be, carried out in real time by people with real money. Occasionally, this negotiation takes the form of a number above 60, which briefly stops everyone cold and raises the question, “Is this the one that doesn’t recover?” No has always been the response thus far. Thus far.
